Two teams on opposite ends of the NFC food chain collide in Week 11 odds, with the Dallas Cowboys laying double figures when they visit the Carolina Panthers this Sunday.
The NFL odds have set Dallas as 10.5-point road chalk, marking the second straight week the Cowboys have been double-digit favorites. They made good as 17.5-point home faves in Week 10, blasting the New York Giants and improving favorites of -10 or higher to 8-2 ATS on the season.
Meanwhile, Carolina has just one win to its name at 1-8, and its record against the spread isn’t much prettier.
The Panthers enter Week 11 at 1-6-2 ATS but enjoyed a mini-bye after losing last Thursday. That means they could have some extra bodies back on defense in time to battle Dallas’ high-octane offense.
I run down the point spread and Over/Under total for this showdown in Charlotte and give my best NFL picks for Cowboys vs. Panthers on November 19.
Cowboys vs Panthers odds
Cowboys vs Panthers predictions
The Dallas Cowboys have been involved in some of the most one-sided wins so far in 2023.
Dallas started the season with a 40-0 flogging of the New York Giants in Week 1 and has since smashed the Jets by 20 points, pounded the Patriots by 35 points, rolled the Rams by 23, and most recently gave the Giants another ass waxing with a 49-17 victory last Sunday.
All but the Week 1 win came inside AT&T Stadium, where Dallas averages 40 points per game. However, while the Cowboys have been one of the highest-scoring home teams over the past four seasons, they do see a massive downtick when taking this offense on the road.
The Cowboys’ scoring rate slips to 21.8 points per road game and Dallas has averaged almost 10 points less away from Arlington over the past four seasons.
It’s why “America’s Team” is 4-0 Over/Under on its team total at home in 2023 (22-8 O/U since 2020) and just 2-3 O/U versus its TT on the road (15-15-1 O/U since 2020). The Cowboys’ Week 11 team total sits at 26.5 Over/Under in Carolina.
Dallas hasn’t surpassed this bar in four of its five road games, and even in that 40-0 win in the season opener in East Rutherford, the Cowboys’ offense was responsible for only 27 of those points (they scored a blocked FG return for TD and had an INT for TD).
In the role of visitor, Dallas sees a drop in yards per play, third-down conversions, and red-zone touchdown percentage. Granted, it has faced some formidable defenses away from home — like San Francisco and Philadelphia — but it also comes out flat against porous stop units like the Cardinals and the Chargers.
The Carolina Panthers aren’t among the defensive elite, sitting near the bottom in most advanced measurements, but they do tend to slow down foes in Charlotte. They’re allowing just 20.3 points per game as a host versus 32.2 as a visitor and are expected to get key starters back in the secondary, as well as top linebacker Brian Burns.
Another reason why we could see fewer points from Dallas in Week 11 is the game script set up by this big spread, as well as the situational spot for the Cowboys, with their annual Thanksgiving Thursday showcase just four days away.
The lofty spread says Dallas should be up big, which means the offense will play a much slower tempo, run the ball, and protect that lead in the second half.
We’ve already seen head coach Mike McCarthy pull his starters in the second half of blowouts. With such a tight turnaround to Thursday’s game, he will be very mindful of any additional rest he can provide his stars this Sunday.
I expect Dallas to come out swinging, build a lead, and then coast to the finish line, staying below its team total of 26.5 points.
My best bet: Dallas Cowboys team total Under 26.5 (+104 at Pinnacle)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Cowboys vs Panthers same-game parlay
Cowboys team total Under 27.5Cowboys first half -6.5Dak Prescott Under 251.5 passing yards
+600 at bet365
The Cowboys aren’t the same offense on the road and the Panthers will provide more pushback with some key defensive players back on the field.
Dallas boasts the best 1H scoring attack in the land and will come out swinging in the opening 30 minutes, trying to build a cushion before the break. Dak Prescott sees his splits slip on the road and in outdoor venues and will be handing off a lot in the 2H with the potential to rest in the final frame.
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